FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE: WHAT LENDERS YOU SHOULD DO IT WITH AND WHY

25-year amortization or 30 years? Insured or Uninsured? With an A Lender or B Lender? These are just a few of the questions people have to decide on when they are pursuing a mortgage. But the biggest question of all: Fixed Rate or Variable Rate?

With the instability of the market, and the Bank of Canada’s continuous rate hikes, many people now are flocking towards a fixed rate mortgage over a variable rate. What this means is that they are choosing to essentially “lock in” at a rate for the term of their mortgage (5 years, 10 years, 1 year…you name it). Now there are benefits to this…but there are also disadvantages too.

For example, did you know that 60% of people will break their mortgage by 36 months into a 5 year term? Whether it’s due to career changes, deciding to have kids, wanting to refinance, or another reason entirely, 60% of mortgage holders will break it.

And just like any other contract out there, if you break it, there is a penalty associated with it. However, there is a way to avoid paying more than is necessary. This applies directly to a fixed rate mortgage and we can help you decide what lenders you should go with.

If you have a FIXED RATE MORTGAGE:
There are two ways your penalty will be calculated.

Method #1. If you are funded by one of the Big 6 Banks (ex. Scotia, TD, etc.) or some Credit Unions, your penalty will be based on the bank of Canada Posted Rate (Posted Rate Method) To give you an example:

With this method, the Bank of Canada 5 year posted rate is used to calculate the penalty. Under this method, let’s assume that they were given a 2% discount at their bank thus giving us these numbers:

Bank of Canada Posted Rate for 5-year term: 5.59%
Bank Discount given: 2% (estimated amount given*)
Contract Rate: 3.59%

Exiting at the 2-year mark leaves 3 years left. For a 3-year term, the lenders posted rate. 3 year posted rate=3.69% less your discount of 2% gives you 1.44%. From there, the interest rate differential is calculated.

Contract Rate: 3.59%
LESS 3-year term rate MINUS discount given: 1.69%
IRD Difference = 1.9%
MULTIPLE that by 3 years (term remaining)
5.07% of your mortgage balance remaining. = 5.7%

For that mortgage $300,000 mortgage, that gives a penalty of $17,100. YIKES!

Now let’s look at the other method (one used by most monoline lenders)

Method #2:
This method uses the lender published rates, which are much more in tune with what you will see on lender websites (and are * generally * much more reasonable). Here is the breakdown using this method:

Rate when you initially signed: 3.24%
Published Rate: 3.34%
Time left on contract: 3 years

To calculate the IRD on the remaining term left in the mortgage, the broker would do as follows:

Rate when you initially signed: 3.24%
LESS Published Rate: 3.54%
=0.30% IRD
MULTIPLY that by 3 years (term remaining)
0.90% of your mortgage balance

That would mean that you would have a penalty of $2,700 on a $300,000 mortgage.

That’s a HUGE difference in numbers, just by choosing to go with a different lender! Knowing what you know about fixed rate mortgages now, let a Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Broker help you make the RIGHT choice for your lender. We are here to help and guide you through the mortgage process from pre-approval onward!

PRE-APPROVED FOR YOUR MORTGAGE… WHAT DOES THAT REALLY MEAN?

There is a myth out there that once you’re pre-approved for a mortgage, you’re good to go out and buy a home… with a no subject offer… DON’T do it!

A pre-approval means that based on being able to PROVE (through documentation) your CURRENT income, expenses, down payment and credit bureau you SHOULD be able to get fully approved once you find the right property (this is the first half of the equation).

Remember that there cannot be any major changes to the your mortgage application details prior to the completion of their purchase as it may affect the your qualifications and change the conditions of the approval.

I always recommend my clients put in a “subject to financing” clause with their realtor when they are putting in an offer to protect themselves.

Here’s why:

The lender can like you and your financial picture, BUT the lender doesn’t know which property you want to purchase (this is the other half of the equation). Here are 3 examples:

• A bidding war has bid up the price and the best offer (yours) has been accepted. YIPPEE!!! The lender sends in their appraiser to determine the value of the property. The appraisal comes in at a lower price than your accepted offer DRATS!! You now have to come up with the difference between the appraised value and your offer, since lenders will only offer a mortgage based on the appraised value of the home.
• You are buying a condo/townhouse and the strata minutes indicate that there are: leaks, electrical issues, roofing problems, etc. that the strata needs to act upon. If the Strata doesn’t have a big enough contingency fund, the lender can decline due to potential special assessments down the road.
• Property zoning – if the zoning is anything other than residential then your options will be limited. Some condos are zoned commercial if there is a large commercial component to the complex. Industrial, Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) in B.C., or leasehold (government or otherwise) limit a buyer’s options.
  As you can tell “you may be pre-approved” but most certainly the subject property is not!!

There are several properties that most lenders will not touch these days. Here’s a (partial) list of property details that can affect most lender’s decisions on approving your mortgage:

• A re-mediated grow-op or drug lab
• Leased land or co-op
• Age-restricted property
• Special assessment (pending or otherwise)
• Any reference to water or leaks in the minutes
• A “fixer upper”
• Contains asbestos, vermiculite insulation or has (even partial) knob-and-tube or aluminum wiring
• Is on land with a commercial zoning component
• Livestock is present, etc.
• Self-managed strata’s (no strata management company)
• Size of the property- below 500 sq. feet,
• Doesn’t use municipal sewage or waste
• Over 1 Acre and/or multiple buildings
• Ongoing or upcoming assessments or legal proceedings
• Strata with small contingency fund

The lender reviews the details of each property in detail once you have an accepted offer in place.

It’s important that the real estate agent discloses the information to their buyer ASAP so that it can be brought to the lender’s attention. The agent should be proactive in getting all documentation pertaining to the building/property, so that the buyer can make an educated buying decision. Many of the issues stated above can affect the long-term value and marketability of a property.

If you have a “subject to financing” clause in your purchase agreement, and you can’t find a lender (for whatever reason), then you can back out of the deal with no financial repercussions.

In my opinion you need to always put in a “subject to financing clause” as that’s the best protection you have. With subject free offers you could forfeit your deposit (and facing potential legal action from the seller) should you want to cancel your contract after the agreement has been made, even though you were technically “pre-approved”.

As you can tell there is lots to discuss about buying homes including pre-approvals! If you have any questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker near you.

4 Reasons why Mortgage Brokers are Better than Banks

I am often asked if it’s hard to compete with the banks. While they may offer competitive rates at times, right now we have much better rates than the banks. However, we have certain advantages which allow us to blow them out of the water most of the time.

1. More Choice – banks are limited to around 5 products that they can offer you. They will try to fit you into one of their products even if the financial institution next door has a better one for you. Brokers have access to banks, credit unions, trust and mortgage companies as well as private lenders.
2. Better Representation – Brokers are your champions bankers are employees. They put their employer first . They won’t offer you the best rates unless you are a good negotiator. Brokers are licenced by provincial organizations and have to follow a code of ethics which requires that we put the consumer first. We also negotiate the best rate, terms and conditions for you. If you need to break the mortgage before the end of the term, we can assist you with that and perhaps help you to avoid paying a penalty.
3. More Benefits – If you are moving into a home that is more than one year old, you probably do not have a home warranty. Brokers have 3 lenders who offer home warranties, which can cover repairs to the plumbing, heating and electrical systems with a small deductible. Two of the lenders even offer this as a complimentary service for the first year while the third lender offers it for the length of the mortgage. As Dominion Lending Centre brokers, we also have discounted rates for moving services and boxes from a large national moving company .
4. Better Protection – I saved the best for last. We offer portable mortgage life and disability insurance.

It may not sound like much but we have the same coverage as the banks offer with one important difference – portability. While we take care to place you with a good lender, circumstances change and lenders may not offer favourable terms on renewal. If you try to leave a bank after developing a condition like high blood pressure or having a heart attack, you will have to re-apply for insurance coverage and may be denied. There are hundreds if not thousands of unhappy bank clients who are stuck paying high interest rates because they are forced to stay with a lender. Broker insurance gives you the independence to move from lender to lender depending on who is willing to offer you the best rates and terms. This may not sound like much to you now but it’s a real game changer for anyone who knows someone who have had this happen to them.

Is it difficult to compete with the banks? No – we have them beat hands down.

GTV’s original boss babe – Sandra Rinomato

After taking a turn as the host of Property Virgins and Buy Herself, Sandra Rinomato has come full circle putting her efforts back into Toronto area real estate.

Sandra Rinomato fell into a career in real estate almost by accident. It was the mid-90s, and the future TV star was considering opening up a coffee shop in the Toronto area. She reached out to a friend and commercial realtor for help to find a space, and he obliged. But he asked her an important question: Why did she want to work so hard?
“I said I don’t, I said I want to work smart not hard,” Rinomato recalled of the conversation 22 years later.
The friend suggested instead of selling java, she get her real estate license. And just like that, she did. She began her real estate career in a prestigious area of Etobicoke, noting she got lucky getting into the industry at a time when the market was good.
In a sink or swim industry, Rinomato quickly established herself, relying on her people skills, especially during open houses.
“It was really a great learning experience to do open houses and get face-to-face with people because let’s face it, everybody loves to talk about real estate,” she said, adding those open houses taught her the publics perception of real estate and what the masses considered a good home.
By 2006, Rinomato’s success and personality eventually led her to being cast in the popular HGTV show Property Virgins.
For seven seasons, Rinomato crisscrossed the continent coaching first-time homebuyers through the process of buying a home.
When she left the show in 2011, she starred in another HGTV show Buy Herself for one season.
The series focused on single women who were buy their first home.
Rinomato was blindsided by the success of Property Virgins, admitting when she was originally asked to take part, she wondered why anyone would want to watch a show about her day-to-day job.
“The show was watched by five-year olds and 80-year olds. That was a real trip,” she said.
While Rinomato considers her turn on TV a blessing, it was also a lot of work. By 2016, she was feeling burned out and ready to take a
step away from media. Nowadays, she’s focused on her first love:
Real estate. She’s still busy running her successful real estate brokerage Sandra Rinomato Realty Inc., But time away from the tube has allowed Toronto resident to get her life back.
“I’m just really enjoying being a realtor, and being a person,” she said, noting she even has time to meet with girl friends for a weeknight dinner, something she could never fit in around her TV schedule.
Rinomato recently took some time to chat with Our House Magazine about some of her favourite topics including real estate, the current market and women’s empowerment.

Our House:

What is it about real estate that you love?

Sandra. I love that every day is different, every client is different, every property is different, every negotiation is different, I love the people contact and I feed off their energy. And I do love being able to share my knowledge and expertise with people. Because when I go to a professional, I know I really benefit when they are knowledgeable.
What are some of the key pieces of advice you give to a client, especially a first-time homebuyer when you meet them for the first time?
The most important thing is to communicate and be honest. That includes being honest with yourself and create a little bit of a plan. Understand your plan might go off the rails at some point, but if you have a plan you can proceed toward your goal. It’s not easy buying a place, it almost doesn’t matter what your budget is, it’s not easy to find everything you want or everything you’re dreaming about. Recognize that this is a big deal. This is serious and this affects your life. If you’re not prepared for it, chances are you’re going to just give up and rent.

Q: What are the common mistakes you see from people buying a home?

A: First time buyers don’t understand the financing. They go online and do a preapproval online and think, ‘Oh, I can get this much money because I make this much money.’ That’s not a preapproval. And if you do get a preapproval from a lender, it may have conditions, so you have to pay off your credit card or your student loans… and a lot of people make the mistake of not taking that seriously and then shopping and finding out too late they have to have that stuff before they can get the mortgage. The other mistake with first-time buyers especially, they expect to get their forever home right of the gate, but you have to take one step at a time. You may not want to, but in Toronto or Vancouver, the first step is a condo. People really may want a house, and you know what, you can get there. Get the condo, get used to the culture around budgeting and being a homeowner and build equity in the condo… and then you can move up. Another mistake people make, many people, don’t know that mortgages are products and there are many products, there are many things to consider other than the interest rate. For example, don’t assume you’re going to get a 25 year amortization. Talk to your mortgage professional to see what your options are.

Q: What do you make of the real estate market right now in Canada and where do you think its heading?

A: I can tell you what’s going on in Toronto, and Toronto is a mixed bag. It has every market. Condos are outperforming every other type of real estate. They are busy, the prices have gone up significantly just in the last six months because it is the last frontier, the last affordable product people can buy. Toronto grew up and I know in Vancouver people are raising families in condos and that’s what’s happening in Toronto. There’s no negative stigma that should be attached to that. The Toronto core, we really didn’t see any hesitation at all. For some reason, the peripheral or outlying areas were hard hit, and I don’t know why. I can’t make sense of it. Many properties are not selling in multiple offers, they’re lingering on the market. I’m going on statistics, I ran the statistics for my area around the office and we’re only four per cent up from last year, but we’re not 40 per cent don like people seem to want to believe. In the last three months it’s gone up eight percent. That little blip is over and I think we’ve come through the other side unscathed. The problem here with Toronto is infrastructure, there’s land that could be developed but there isn’t any money to build the water treatment plants, so the land can’t be developed yet. Even with what’s happening in the peripheral of Toronto with the downturn in the market, that is temporary because people need a place to live and we’re growing rapidly. If you think Toronto is expensive now, just wait.

Q: Have you kept an eye on the mortgage rules that came into effect in January?

A: Yes, people qualify for less. I feel bad for people who waited to have their 20 per cent down because as I said it’s a lot of work, it’s a lot of time to save those after tax dollars and you wanted to avoid the CMHC fees for being a high ratio mortgage. Now you’re in a conventional mortgage and they slap these rules on you and it’s like ‘Wow, I can afford $150,000 less’ which puts you right out of the market. I don’t disagree they should have a stress test to make sure people can afford houses, I think Canadian banks and lenders have been typically conservative and it’s worked well for our country. I do think there should be a little bit of leeway, for people who have to renew in a couple years who may not qualify under the stress test when they have to renew their mortgage. I’m not sure what that’s going to look like. I have clients who are worried and I’m worried for them.

Q: How important is financing and budgeting when it comes to buying a home?

A: It’s crucial. It’s not just a matter of the bank saying I can have this much money. I say calculate what you spend by tracking every penny you spend for a month. Whatever your fixed expenses are, and then anything you buy, either put it on debit or credit so you get a transaction report at the end of the month. If you just look at that and say, this is what I spent, these are my fixed costs, on top of that I have to put on vacation, gifts, entertainment not incorporated in that month… and then savings. Add in 10 per cent of your income or whatever you designate as your savings, and that’s how much money you need every month to survive. When you look at that, you freak out. That’s the real number. Of course you need to know what the bank will give you, but you also need to know what your spending habits are. Don’t lie to yourself, and say you’re going to stop spending money on such and such. If that’s what makes you happy and motivates you to get out of bed, you’re not going to stop. Accept it and embrace it. And so it means I can afford this amount of mortgage. That’s what it means.

Q: How do you see the role of a mortgage broker in the transaction of a home?

A: They’re critical. I don’t have any bearing on where people go, I make my recommendations, only because I know we may need to contact someone on a Saturday night if we’re in multiple offer. We need correct information, and sometimes if you just walk into a (bank) branch you don’t necessarily get a mortgage professional, so I insist they get a mortgage professional.

Jeremy Deutsch

Communications Advisor

7 things every self-employed individual should know — Before you apply for a mortgage

Self-employed individuals are quickly becoming one of the most common clients that we handle. Daily we have successful business owners come into our offices who enjoy the perks of being an entrepreneur. One of these includes fantastic write-offs that allow them to bring their income down to a low tax bracket.

However, this benefit can also mean that the same business owner may have a hard time qualifying for a mortgage all because their income is significantly reduced on paper… how frustrating ‘eh? But these savvy business owners know that there is advanced planning that is involved in being able to qualify for conventional financing. Back in 2015, Statistics Canada reported that there were about 2.7 million people self-employed in Canada… which is an astounding 14% of the total population of Canada! What does that stat mean? Two things:

1. That being self-employed is a more than viable way of earning income in today’s world.
2. That 14% may not fit into the conventional lending “box”

The Conventional Lending Box
To fit into this box, self-employed individuals must meet certain qualifications. For example, they must be able to provide:
>Two most recent years of personal tax returns
>Two most current years Notice of Assessments
>Two most current years financial statements
>Statement of Bank Account Activity
>Investment Income Statement
>Photo ID

Now, the one area that raises a red flag in the above is the tax returns. As we previously mentioned, their income claimed on the return itself might be significantly different than their actual income. Tax deductions related to business often reflect meals, rental spaces, credit card interest etc. The result is that the income the self-employed business owner shows on their tax return is a significantly lower figure than what their actual take home pay is. However, the conventional lending box requires income to justify the mortgage. So how do we pull this off?

The Unconventional Lending Box
Now please keep in mind that “unconventional” in this box just means that as a self-employed individua,l you are going to work with a Mortgage Broker to find an alternative to allow you to show that you can justify the mortgage. There are several well-known and consistently used pieces of advice that we would like to pass along to you:

1. If you are organized and planning (think 2 years out) you can plan to write off fewer expenses in the two years leading up to the property purchase. Yes, you will pay more personal taxes. However, your income will be higher, and it will be easier to qualify you for the mortgage amount you are seeking.
2. Set up your finances through a certified accountant. Many lenders want to see self-employed income submitted through a professional rather than doing it yourself. The truth is that the time you spend doing your own taxes will not be nearly as efficient both financially and time-wise as a professional. Make sure that you discuss with them what your goals are so that they can set up your taxes properly for you!
3. Choose your timing carefully. If you are leaving for an extended holiday within the two years before purchasing, your two-year average income may fluctuate. Plan your vacations and extended trips away with income in mind.
4. Consider using Stated Income. You have the option to state your income. This is based on you being in the same profession for 2+ years before being self-employed. The lender looks at the industry and researches the mean income of someone in that profession and with your experience. You will be required to provide additional documents such as bank statements, showing consistent deposits and other documentation may be asked of you to show your income.
5. Avoid Bankruptcy at all cost…. or if you do declare bankruptcy have all your discharge papers on hand to present to the lender and ensure you have two years of re-established your credit.
6. Mortgage Brokers can state income with lenders at the best discounted rates. But if you do not qualify with A lenders using stated income, then a broker will work with you to utilize a B Lender who are more lenient but may come with higher interest rates and applicable lending and broker fees.
7. Last but not least, if A or B lenders don’t fit, private financing can be looked at as an alternative option in order to get you into the market and offer a short-term solution to improve credit or top up your reporting income. Then you and your broker can refinance into an A or B lender at that time. Just keep in mind that private lending will have a higher rate associated with it , with lender and broker fees added on as well, if you choose to go with this option.

So, to all of our self-employed, hard-working, determined individuals, take heart! You can qualify for the mortgage you want, it just takes a little more planning to get everything in order. Keep in mind to that every lender has different guidelines as to how they view self-employment. Working with a Dominion Lending Centres broker leading up to your property purchase can help you ensure you get the mortgage you want.

Geoff Lee

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

Yup …. its almost tax time …. dont procrastinate …. be prepared ….. below from my DLC colleague is a good start to being prepared. Well said Kiki!

Are you behind on your CRA Taxes?

Nothing weighs heavy on one’s shoulders than owning a home and getting behind on your Canada Revenue taxes. Most banks will not be able to help you refinance your home to pay them off as CRA has first dibs on your house and assets. We have clients owing anywhere from $5,000- $300,000 in back taxes and have threatening letters from CRA that would keep anyone up at night.

There are options and strategies we can assist with financing your CRA debts:

1: We use alternative lenders that charge higher fees/rates for a 1-year term

2: Short term 2nd mortgage to pay off your CRA debts and then refinance back with your lender.

Find out who we can help with a no-obligation application. Let a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional get you back on track!

Some CRA notes on penalties for filing late:

The first time you file late you’ll pay:

• a late-filing penalty –5% of the amount of tax you owe, plus 1% for every month that your return is late, for up to 12 months. That adds up to a maximum of 17% of the tax you owe.
• interest – at the prescribed interest rate on the amount you owe, beginning on May 1. You’ll also be charged interest on any late-filing penalties. Interest is compounded daily, not monthly or annually. The prescribed interest rate can change every 3 months.
• If you miss the deadline again, the late-filing penalties are doubled. For example, if the CRA charged you late-filing penalties for any of the 3 previous years, you would pay a penalty of up to 50% made up of 10% of the taxes you owe, plus 2% of the taxes you owe for each full month that your return is late, to a maximum of 20 months.

Kiki Berg

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

Millennial’s please read this … you are the next biggest wave of Canada’s home buyers…… well said Karen !

A guide to your Home Buyers’ Plan

Start at the beginning…
Registered Retirement Savings Plan = one of the best ways to save for retirement and your down payment and continuing your education. With an RRSP, your contributions reduce your taxable income. This is different from your TFSA (Tax Free Savings Account) which does not reduce your taxable income, but it does give you the added benefit of tax-free withdrawals. What does that mean? Well, with the RRSP you get a tax deduction meaning money back to you!
This is different from your TFSA, Tax Free Savings Account which does not reduce your taxable income, but it does give you the added benefit of tax-free withdrawals. But, reality is the RRSP will have a lower tax rate in retirement.
Everyone can save for their RRSP with as little as $50 per paycheque or more, depending on your budget. You can also go to your bank, sometimes your broker and see about a line of credit, that would be essentially secured by the RRSP, so that you contribute as much as you can qualify for. With this option when you get your refund, put those funds toward the RRSP loan, DON’T use it for the get away we all deserve!
An RRSP line of credit based on a 5-year term at prime rate +/- would equate to about $10,000 in a refund, based on 40% tax margin. If you retire in 25 years you would have approximately $107,296 in your RRSP and that is based on an estimated 6% annual rate of return.
Did you know that you can use up to $25,000 from your Registered Retirement Savings Plan, for each applicant, towards your down payment and closing costs this is the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP)?
Do you meet the RRSP withdrawal conditions?
• Resident of Canada at the time of withdrawal

• You cannot withdraw more than $25,000

• Only the person who is entitled to receive payments from the RRSP can withdraw funds from an RRSP. You can withdraw funds from more than one RRSP as long as you are the owner of each RRSP. Your RRSP issuer will not withhold tax on withdraw amounts of $25,000 or less.

• Normally, you will not be allowed to withdraw funds from a locked-in RRSP or a group RRSP.

• Your RRSP contributions must stay in the RRSP for at least 90 days before you can withdraw them under the HBP. If this is not the case, the contributions may not be deductible for any year.

• Neither you nor your spouse or common-law partner or the related person with a disability that you buy or build the qualifying home for can own the qualifying home more than 30 days before the withdrawal is made.

• You have to buy or build a qualifying home for yourself, for a related person with a disability, or to help a related person with a disability buy or build a qualifying home before October 1st of the year after the year of the withdrawal.

• You have to fill out Form T1036, Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) Request to Withdraw Funds from an RRSP for each eligible withdrawal.

Under the HBP, the home must better fit the needs of the disabled person than his or her current home. You can withdraw funds from your RRSPs under the HBP to buy or build a home, if:

• you are a person with a disability;

• you are buying or building a home for a related person with a disability;

• you are helping a related person with a disability to buy or build a home.

Regardless of the situation, you are responsible for making sure that all applicable HBP conditions are met. If, at any time during your participation period, a condition is not met, your withdrawal will not be considered eligible and it will have to be included as income on your income tax and benefit return for the year it is received. Valuable information at your fingertips and from your broker.

Check for more information at Revenue Canada here. If you have any questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional near you.

Karen Penner

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

Canadian Jobless Rate Fell To 40-Year Lows

Canada posted moderate employment gains as the unemployment rate dipped once again to historically low levels, which was the result of fewer people look for work. Despite very tight labour markets and rising job vacancy rates, wage growth weakened in October.

Statistics Canada released data today that showed a moderate 11.2k gain in employment, but also a falling labour force, which was down 18.2k. In consequence, the jobless rate fell back to 5.8% in October, matching a four-decade low. This is consistent with just under 2% economic growth as the Bank of Canada expects. This modest gain in employment suggests the Bank will hold interest rates steady in December, especially given that wage gains have slowed for the fifth consecutive month.

Continuing the see-saw pattern of late, full-time employment was in the driver’s seat, with 33.9k net positions added. Part-time work fell 22.6k. The overall gains were driven by the private sector (+20.3k) as public sector employment pulled back (-30.8k), leaving a 21.8k gain in self-employment.

These indicators are consistent with business surveys that are getting louder in their complaints that it’s difficult to find workers. But there is little evidence that firms are offering better pay to attract and retain employees. Wages were up 2.2% from a year ago, the slowest pace in more than a year and down from as high as 3.9% earlier this year. Wage gains for permanent workers were 1.9%, also the slowest in more than a year. This reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in December. The Bank of Canada’s wage common measure has been more stable at 2.3% so far this year. This is a better indicator of the underlying trend, but no doubt it’s still short of what we would expect at this point in the cycle.

Also, the participation rate fell to 65.2% last month, the lowest level in 20 years as the labour force increased by just 62.5k so far this year–one of the smallest 10-month gains in recent history. It is notable, however, that the participation rate for 25-54 year-olds–the core labour force–rose to a record high.

On a regional basis, employment rose slightly in Saskatchewan, while there was little change in all the other provinces (see table below).

More people were employed in business, building and other support services; wholesale and retail trade; and health care and social assistance. In contrast, there were fewer workers in “other services;” finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; and natural resources. Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing declined by 15,000 in October, offsetting an increase the month before. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was little changed as housing starts, and resales have slowed, especially in B.C. and Ontario.

Bottom Line: Income growth will be crucial in enabling households to manage debt loads in a rising rate environment and by extension a key determinant of the pace of future Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. Today’s jobs report along with other less timely data suggest the Bank of Canada will refrain from raising interest rates in December.

US Posted A Strong October Jobs Report

Hiring rebounded sharply last month in the US as non-farm payrolls added 250k new jobs, compared to 118k in September, which was restrained by disruption from Hurricane Florence. The unemployment rate held at its cycle-low 3.7%.

The closely watched measure of wage growth–average hourly earnings– rose 0.2% on the month. On a year-over-year basis, wages in the US were up 3.1%, a new post-recession high.

This is an unambiguously positive report. Hiring bounced back from a hurricane-dampened September. The number of Americans with jobs relative to the population reached a new post-recession high. And, perhaps most notably, wages continue to make progress.

With the Fed just having moved in September, we are not anticipating another hike at next week’s FOMC meeting as the central bank adheres to a gradual pace of tightening. However, our forecast does anticipate a 25-basis point increase at the next policy meeting in December followed by similar-sized hikes every quarter through next year. This results in the upper end of the fed funds rate range finishing 2019 at 3.50% compared to 2.25% currently.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres